Space Ramblings

19 Million for iPhone?

About 19 million U.S. cell phone users are ready to pay as much as $599 for Apple Inc.’s iPhone, nearly double the number Apple has projected it will sell by the end of 2008, a survey said Friday. Demand for the iPhone, which will go on sale June 29, will be massive at the start, predicted Donovan. Of the more than 11,000 American cell phone users surveyed, 9%, or roughly the equivalent of over 19 million of all U.S. subscribers, said their purchase intent was high.

That assumes that these 19 million cell phone users are genuinely representative of the American cell phone user population. I don’t see any real breakdown of whether this survey was even geographically extended. For all we know they ran this in San Fran where sure, every other bike rider will proclaim his or her desire for an iPhone.

Right now Apple has unveiled what seems like a cool new gadget which everyone is talking about. That of course generates shopping interest. How many of these people will actually get one when they realize the real cost of it and the lack of features and when stories about the annoyance factor begin appearing is another matter entirely. Translating a percentage in a survey who showed interest in buying it into actual device sales is just plain wrong. Some people will no doubt let themselves be strung along by the hype and buy it. But that’s not 19 million people. Too many are stuck in their own cell phone contractors. Too many will look in the monthly budget and not fine the money. Too many will take a closer look at the features, read the reviews and then move on.

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